Local Market Outlook

buyers

Single-family home prices bounced back across the board in January, with all three counties posting positive year-over-year gains.
Inventory levels are beginning to normalize, with San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties actually seeing slight year-over-year declines.
Listings are spending roughly the same amount of time on the market as they were last year, with Merced County actually seeing a significant decrease.

A strong start to 2026 for home prices in the Central Valley
After a couple of months of modest declines to close out 2025, single-family home prices across the Central Valley came roaring back in January. The median single-family home in Merced County sold for $436,983, representing a 4.67% year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, the median listing in San Joaquin County sold for $531,500, a 2.21% increase, and the median listing in Stanislaus County sold for $475,000, a 3.26% increase. Although prices are trending in the right direction, it is worth noting that buyers can still find deals in the area, with the average single-family home listing selling for between 95.5% and 97.5% of its original asking price, depending on the county.

Fortunately for home buyers and sellers, the lending markets are beginning to believe that interest rates will remain low in the near and medium term future. This has led interest rates to continue inching down almost every month. In the past few weeks, we’ve seen the average 30-year mortgage rate at the lowest level it’s been in the past three years, which is tremendous news for the housing market. Unfortunately though, it doesn’t seem like the Fed will lower rates during the next FOMC meeting, as CME FedWatch currently has the probability of a March rate cut at just 7.9% at the time this was written. However, if you extend your time horizon out a bit, it does seem like there’s a good chance we see a rate cut or two throughout the rest of the year.

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