Market Update

Current Outlook

agricultural real estate

With the mid-term elections behind and leaving us with a divided federal government heading into 2023 – a good thing if you look at the history of real estate markets, which appreciate the predictability of congressional gridlock. The FTX calamity put the entire cryptocurrency industry on the back foot and brought renewed interest from skeptics and regulators – another good thing since we believe that solid businesses, with actual cash profits and strong teams, will move back to the front of the line. An unexpectedly positive inflation report sent stocks soaring in a way we haven’t seen since 2020 and gave us some respite from the constant negativity we’ve experienced since the summer. The upward swing built on the recent rally and reflected the hope among traders that the Fed will begin slowing the pace of interest rate raises over the coming months.

The big question everyone still has is whether we can continue to pare inflation while avoiding a recession. Recent layoffs in the tech sector suggest turbulent times are ahead, and the market positivity we are feeling right now is more “eye of the storm” than true blue skies. Goldman Sachs told clients on Monday it still sees a 35% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months. While that is double the normal risk of a recession, it is far below the 63% average in a recent forecaster survey by The Wall Street Journal

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The truth is we just don’t know. But one thing to remember through all these swings? Real estate is still one of the most reliable long-term investment options out there.